Plummet In US Stock Market Volume: Where’s All The Institutional Demand?

Another brief move above S&P (^GSPC) 1100 was quickly rejected again Thursday morning, with traders sensing this market is running out of steam at resistance. The eight-day upside romp covered over +7.5% from low to high, yet volume absolutely evaporated on the advance.

Healthy markets need fuel (volume) in order to continue moving upward; since October 30th SPY volume has plummeted over 50%. This is unbelievable - where is all the institutional demand?

Eventually the feeble upside volume and lack of institutional sponsorship is going to come back to haunt the Bulls. Just as in the case with momentum divergences, which we have been pointing out, the paucity of volume often won’t cause market strength to crack immediately, but should be a clear warning equities are not on stable ground.

Oil (USO -3.1%) looks increasingly vulnerable to a large correction; the US dollar ETF (UUP +1.42%) has seen a huge increase in upside volume in both the stock and option call contracts; and gold (GLD -1.30%) is certainly extended, vulnerable to a sharp decline. Put it all together, and the background is set for equities to move lower.

All that is needed is some downside price action, a few lower highs and lower lows, violating support levels, unable to hold key moving averages. Once S&P 1080 is taken out, watch the action around the 50-day MA (1061) to see if institutions step up and support their positions. If that level doesn’t contain the down-draft, then the early Nov lows (1029) and the 89-day moving average (1028) will be the next key support.

As always this commentary is merely a forum for pointing out possible areas of interest for traders. As we pointed out late last week and in the closing paragraphs to the Week In Review introduction this week, until prices actually decline, independent traders leaning heavily short are asking for trouble. Just because you FEEL the market is overvalued doesn’t mean it is about to come crashing down.

Make your lists, doing your homework ahead of time so if the anticipated decline begins, you are prepared to act boldly and decisively. Otherwise, when the action starts, you will in extremis, unable to act at all.

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