“November And December Historically Provide Superior Gains” - Will It Be Different This Time?

Sometimes a little perspective can be had from poking around.  Weekend articles are excellent for financial news because very often big things happen on weekends in the hopes that it will be “old news” and have made way for something else by the time the open bell rings on Monday morning.

For example:

CIT Group Files for Ch 11 Bankruptcy (Finally)

Not that this is REALLY new news for anyone - their bond/equity deal was a last ditch effort with a low probability of success at best.  But who knows, maybe the 5th largest bankruptcy filing in US history by assets is the first of a renewed trend.

I’ve also been reading something pretty hilarious as I poked around the usual MS financial sites like Bloomburg, CNBC, the Globe and Mail, et al.

I see many mentions of historical performance - remember, coming into October, most mainstream market pundits were citing the fact that “October is historically a bad month for the market”.  Now, on the other hand, the perspective has swung drastically.  “November and December historically provide superior gains” and such other nonsense is being put out there against the back drop that the market is suffering a “temporary correction”.

Now, I’ll cover this briefly - the contrarian in me is laughing out loud, thinking “we’re in the biggest bear market in history, so why shouldn’t October - historically a HORRIBLE month - turn out not-so-bad, and why shouldn’t November-December proffer huge declines in the markets?”

Our forecast still holds tangible and strong.  A look at the long-term chart of the S&P 500 (^GSPC) gives us a perfect long-term channel correction in a continued bear market.  The target price for the index is below 200 points, which may sound outrageous now, but as time unfolds will most likely prove truer, sooner.

Hold on To your Hats, Folks!

We’ll catch up later in the week with you, diligent readers.  If you are not in cash we hold our recommendation of making that move ASAP.  The more of it you have in your hand the better.

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