Another Example Green Shoots Are Sprouting

I am absolutely in shock as more and more economists come out with their proof that green shoots are sprouting. Maybe we just read different material. Maybe just everyone wants to be positive and not look at the facts. This scary fact sticks out boldly: Card Defaults Surge in August to 11.49%! I am sure that fact is very favorable for credit card companies. All one has to do is look at the rally that American Express (AXP) has had since the March lows.

Click here for the chart of AXP

The share price went from approx $10.00 to high of approx $39.00. Not bad for a company experiencing record levels of write offs and non payments. Put it another way… these numbers are increasing. Write-offs rose to 11.49 percent from 10.52 percent in July of 2009. I do not even have to mention the rise in foreclosures. I thought these had stopped when I heard that green shoots are sprouting. The fact is month over month …foreclosures are increasing.

The fact is one could have their head in the sand…not listened to any economist speaking about green shoots and trend followed the fantastic move that AXP had. This is what trend followers do…they follow trends. Price action is paramount. Sometimes however even trend followers need to think about how much they are willing to risk in order to potentially benefit.

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