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China Is A Fraud
By Growth Stock Wire on September 16, 2009 | More Posts By Growth Stock Wire | Author's Website
Is China cooking the books?
It’s a reasonable question. After all, we’ve exported many of our jobs and most of our manufacturing base to the People’s Republic… We might as well send them our accounting standards, too.
Every conspiracy theorist, most rational consumers who buy groceries for their families, and nearly all taxpayers suspect the U.S. government massages its economic statistics to make things look better (or less worse) than they actually are. China appears to be taking our lead, supported by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
In a report released last Tuesday, the U.N. Conference estimated the Chinese economy would grow 7.8% this year, while the global economy is likely to decline. The obvious question here is… How does the world’s leading exporter of manufactured goods grow 8% while the rest of the world stops buying manufactured goods?
It certainly can’t be because the Chinese population is increasing its spending habits. Over 50 million Chinese adults are unemployed, and they’re moving from the manufacturing cities back to their rural family farms. So they’re unlikely to buy the $100 sneakers we here in the West like so much.
Perhaps it’s because the Chinese government has committed to spending $585 billion on various infrastructure projects. As we’ve seen here in the U.S., massive government spending can provide a temporary boost in economic activity. But it’s debatable whether there are any lasting effects.
The Chinese stock market, as represented by the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC), bottomed last November, when the Chinese government announced its plan to throw a few trillion yuan at the economy. Between then and its peak in August, the SSEC was up over 100%.
But the price action since August has been weak, and it appears reality is entering the equation. Here’s the chart…
After an amazing run higher, Chinese stocks broke down below the rising support line (the blue line) in mid-August. The fall was swift and severe and chopped more than 20% off the index in just one month. Since then, Chinese stocks have gotten the predictable bounce back up near resistance (the red line). If you doubt the validity of the “Chinese Miracle Economy,” this is an ideal situation to make a short side bet.
Make no mistake, the Chinese economy - much like the U.S. economy - relies on the U.S. consumer. If Americans aren’t buying big-screen TVs or $100 sneakers, Chinese stocks are ultimately headed for trouble.
The American consumer isn’t buying.
Oh, sure, if you dangle a $4,500 carrot in front of his face, he can be motivated to trade in his rusty old truck for a sleek, new, pimped-out ride. But unless the government is willing to fund cash for jeans, cash for sofas, cash for refrigerators, and cash for rubber dog poop programs, that stimulus is spent.
The American consumer has no savings. His main source of spending, the home equity line of credit, is nonexistent. And total consumer credit dropped $21.6 billion last month alone. That’s a 10% annual decline.
So the question again is… How can the world’s leading exporter of manufactured goods grow 8% when its best customer can’t buy the manufactured goods?
The answer is… It can’t. And the Chinese stock market is slowly coming to grips with that reality.
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The question at the start of the article has been answered many times many years.
The answer is depends on what you believe.
Let me ask you a question.
Is US cooking the books?
Why only China, for the matter every country of planet doing the same thing i.e. under reporting inflation and massaging growth. Our Indian government is doing same. Because stock market loves it and we are getting more and more dependent on it for economy to grow. Second reason being most of our politicians ill-gotten money is invested in stock market.
“…….the U.N. Conference estimated the Chinese economy would grow 7.8% this year ………
…….How can the world’s leading exporter of manufactured goods grow 8% when its best customer can’t buy the manufactured goods………”
you obviously don’t know where this 7.8% is from, it is not from exporting for sure though exporting is still huge in china, the growth comes from
1) new car sales — they are selling new cars 1000/day in tier 1 cities like bejing, shanghai, 100/day in tier 2 cities like chengdu, shenyang
2) real estate — the so called bubbles in tier 1 cities never really burst and now they are on the uptrend again, the
matter is getting worse as the price in smaller cities are going up as well this time
“…..And the Chinese stock market is slowly coming to grips with that reality …….”
obviously you never traded chinese stocks (A share), just sitting in a new york office and IMAGINE what is going on in china. top 10 stocks traded in shanghai are banks, real estate developers, oil companies, metal companies, mobile phone companies, they form the “Dow Jones” of china and none of them is in exporting business. Export decline is a negative factor but right now the positive factors are outweighting it and will continue so in the near future.
This article is written on false assumptions and therefore the conclusions are wrong