ETF Update: A Time for Caution

Here at “A Dash” we look carefully at market sectors.  Our analysis helps us in three ways.

1. In our “long only” accounts, we use the sector ratings to help in timing entries and exits.
2. In our short-term accounts, we trade the signal, finding new positions on a daily or weekly basis, depending on the established time frame.
3. In determining our overall market viewpoint, we consider various sector strength indicators to help in our assessment.

Briefly put, looking at market sectors is neither the forest nor the trees, but a useful perspective in between.  We consider Trends, Cycles, and a bit of Anticipation.  Since we apply the model to nearly 300 ETF’s, we call it the TCA-ETF system.  (For new readers, there is a more complete description of our methods at the end of the article.)

The Macro View

From an overall market viewpoint, the indicators have all declined since last week.  We look at how many sectors have positive strength, the average strength, how few are in our “penalty box” (violating technical indicators), and the relative strength of the index ETF’s.

All of these factors declined dramatically last week, leading us to a neutral stance on the market.  We are working on methods for a better quantification for market timing.  We hope that others find these indicators useful, even if not trading our specific holdings.

The Micro View

The ratings also generate a leading sector.  This week the focus in on Austria, which we trade via MSCI Austria Investable Market Index Fund (EWO).  The rating is consistent with other European stocks and sectors.  Here is a look at the chart.

It is not a very dramatic chart, but there is a nice uptrend with no apparent resistance.

There is not much comment from the pundits.  Our friends at one of our featured sites, Bespoke Investment Group mention this sector as a possible “overbought” candidate.

Maybe so.  And the rest of Europe (according to our readings) is in the same category.  The team from BIG is providing descriptive information, not a prediction.  Good data. We’ll soon see if Europe (a weak dollar play?) shows more strength.

For now — we are playing Europe, while shifting specific country holdings.

Weekly TCA-ETF Rankings

82% (versus 57% last week) of all sectors are now in the penalty box, having violated certain technical criteria.  Our index package (near the bottom of the table) shows that the longs and shorts are close to even.

It was not a good week for our methods, mostly because of the strong dollar.  The market was down over 1% and we were two percent worse.  It goes with the territory — part of adopting a non-correlated strategy.

Based upon the current model signals, we have shifted to a neutral position in the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment poll.

Here are the top sectors from our expanded universe of 277 ETF’s.  The list also includes the values for the broad market ETF’s and their inverses.  Our holdings as of Thursday night were smaller than usual in front of Friday’s employment number.

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