No Recession, No Rally!

How ironic that news of Japan’s exit from recession, and an improved US manufacturing number, were greeted by a reversal in stock markets. The VIX (^VIX) fear index jumped 15% this morning as shares plummeted.

Japan celebrated its departure from recession land with a 3% fall in stock markets. The move wasn’t quite so perverse when you see that the rise was actually less than the forecast 1%, and that the economics minister warned that the recovery remained fragile and with downside risks.

Wow! What a time to come back off holiday; it’s all kicking off now across the markets. The trouble is that I’m still playing catch-up before getting too involved on the trading front, and what’s more, I’m off on hols again next week!

So, is this the big reversal we’ve been waiting for, or just a much-needed pullback before the next move higher? I’m not sure yet, but I’ll be posting some more considered thoughts on stock markets and currencies over the next couple of days.

I haven’t ventured near the forex market today; a quick glance has shown me that all the previous trends have hit the (temporary?) reverse button, and that I missed a massive killing on the GBPJPY trade.

I’m looking at a falling pound, but reading some top analysts still recommending ‘buy on weakness’, and as coin-tosses go I don’t fancy being on the wrong team just yet.

Back in equity land I’m a small short of the Dax from a holiday hunch at 5395 and happy to run it with a stop at 5390. This morning I bought FTSE (^FTSE) for a bounce off its 21-day moving average, but whipped my stop loss up for a small gain and that’s exactly what I ended up with!

In the normal course of events I’d expect the UK market to rally from its 21-day MAV, and to be fair it’s making a decent attempt to hold the level as I write. But this summer has hardly been ‘normal’. July’s break above the 21-day MAV showed the bears a clean pair of heels and didn’t have the manners to pop back and test support, so perhaps we see the same lack of etiquette on the way down.

The fact that I’m off (and away) next week means that I’ll limit myself to day trades this week and only leave a trade running if it’s well onside and already on a ’stop-loss protected’ profit.

Subscribe by RSS Subscribe by Email