US Earnings Preview For This Week

Six Dow components are scheduled to report as large-cap stocks dominate the first big week of earnings season, including Intel (INTC).

Joining them will be Google (GOOG) and 24 other members of the S&P 500. Overall, 83 companies are scheduled to report. Though the total size of the calendar is not large, its composition could significantly influence market direction.

Minutes from the June Fed meeting will be released on Wednesday afternoon and could lead to volatility in the bond markets.

• Monday: June Treasury Budget
• Tuesday: June Producer Price Index (PPI), June retail sales, May business inventories
• Wednesday: June Consumer Price Index (CPI), July Empire State (NY) Index, June industrial production and capacity utilization, Fed minutes, weekly crude inventories
• Thursday: July Phili Fed survey, July National Association of Homebuilders Index, weekly initial jobless claims
• Friday: June housing starts and building permits

No Fed officials are currently scheduled to speak.

July stock options expire on Friday.

Wednesday could be the most volatile day, given the large amount of earnings and economic news. Overall, we’ll be looking for positive earnings surprises, confirmation that the second half will be better than the first half and buying in reaction to good news.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

Four of 15 covering brokerage analysts have increased their second-quarter profit projections on W.W. Grainger (GWW) over the past few weeks. As a result, the consensus estimate now calls for per share earnings of $1.15 per share. The most accurate estimate is 2 cents higher at $1.17 per share. GWW has topped expectations for 5 consecutive quarters.

Recent revisions by 3 brokerage analysts have pushed the second-quarter consensus estimate for Google (GOOG) up 4 cents to $4.35 per share. The most accurate estimate is even more bullish at $4.40 per share. GOOG has topped expectations for 3 consecutive quarters. Google is scheduled to report on Thursday, Jul 16, after the close of trading.

Five analysts raised their second-quarter estimates on Intel (INTC) within the past 30 days. Though the changes were not enough to budge the consensus estimate from its current level of 7 cents per share, the revisions suggest there could be upside. Both Micron (MU) and National Semiconductor (NSM) have already topped expectations and Texas Instruments (TXN) raised its second-quarter guidance. Plus, INTC has topped estimates during 4 out of the last 5 quarters. Intel is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Jul 14, after the close.

One analyst just raised his second-quarter profit forecast on Wolverine World Wide (WWW). The revision pushed the consensus estimate a penny higher to 26 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is 3 cents higher at 29 cents per share. WWW has topped expectations during 3 out of the last 4 quarters. Wolverine Worldwide is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Jul 15, before the start of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

The ongoing recession is having an impact on Harley-Davidson (HOG). The motorcycle manufacturer has missed expectations for 3 consecutive quarters and analysts are bracing for more bad news. During the past 30 days, the second-quarter consensus estimate has declined 2 cents to 26 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is even more bearish at 24 cents per share. Harley-Davidson is scheduled to report on Thursday, Jul 16, before the start of trading.

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