Data Confuses Both Bulls And Bears On Friday

There was enough confusing data to tame bull and bear alike today. The victims today were commodity bulls, dollar bears and bond holders. Employment data was superficially “better than expected” despite the headline 9.4% unemployment rate. But inside the numbers things were disappointing with revisions and the ongoing games played with the birth/death model. The latter is an official guess of how many folks have given up looking for work. It’s a crude and easily manipulated number.

The bottom line is things still suck as evidenced by the continuing climb in unemployment.

Markets started out like gangbusters but faded quickly given other realities like rising yields, horrible consumer borrowing data and perhaps just a “news selling” opportunity after sharp run-ups.

Volume increased significantly in some sectors while breadth was essentially a push.

As promised I stayed after school today and posted a summary.

The charts reflect bulls are betting heavily a recovery is at hand. This will have to be born out by earnings and job growth. So far we don’t have much of either.

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