The Weak Dollar Gives, The Strong Dollar Takes Away

Comments as of Wednesday’s close: Risk assets have been benefiting from a weakening U.S. dollar. On Wednesday, the dollar strengthened on concerns about the economy (acting as a safe haven). From a technical perspective the dollar index has some support near 79.05 and 78.98 (today’s low was 78.33 - we are at 79.53 now). Last time these areas came into play, a three week countertrend rally followed, which is one reason we have been taking relatively small positions in recent weeks. A multi-week dollar counter-trend move is a possibility - we just need to be aware of it.

Bullish GAPs Still In Play - Support On S&P 500 Holds

On May 8, 2009, we presented this chart of crude oil (see below). Oil was trading at $58 when we posted the chart. The gap was filled as oil recently traded over $68. Today, similar chart patterns are present in many asset classes. We will illustrate the current situation using SLX (steel stocks).

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