Futures Outlook For Thursday: S&P, Mini Dow Jones, Crude Oil

S&P 500 June Contract

S&P has reacted perfectly coming back to test 775 and then spring boarding higher through 821 to test 828.40 this morning. There is resistance at 830.50 from previous highs, but this is expected to be dispatched by buyers which would then lead the market higher for 836 to 840.20.

Within this band of resistance profit taking is expected and sellers will be testing the water due to the rise of the past two days. You should therefore see the market come lower from these highs. 809/807 will be defended vigorously by buyers and thus expect this level to hold. Buyers would only question position if below 798.

Now if 842.35 resistance breaks buyers will once more leap into action- provoking a move higher with 847 their immediate target. Above 847 sees 852/853 which should halt the advance initially.

Yesterday’s Price Action

High : 810.30

Low : 779.50

Close : 809.20

Support

825

821

818

809

807.95

806/804

798

791

Resistance

831

838.6/840.20

842.35

847

852/853.5

859.40

869***

873/875.5

Today’s Pivot Points

830.40

819.80

799.60

789.00

768.80

SHORT TERM HOURLY FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS

815.40

808.45

802.20

795.96

789

LONGER TERM DAILY FIB LEVELS

734.10

770.69

803.40

836.10

872.27

Mini Dow Jones June Contract

Dow has ramped higher to 7896. It has exceeded previous highs of 7865 and look poised to test the 7945/70 resistance level. Buyers would be profit taking at these higher levels and sellers may just test the water, given the price rise of the last two sessions.

However any sellers would be rattled if the market broke through 7970. A rise above this resistance would set the buyers off once again with the 61.8 fib level of 8061/70 their focused area. Short term profit taking should halt the advance initially, seeing correction before the next leg higher. However if above 8070 sellers should reverse shorts and lead this higher for 8115/25 initially, with 8198 then following.

So now support is located at 7696. Buyers will be defending this support thus any short covering would be short lived as buying pressure returns to this market from these lower levels. Only below 7611 would buyers question longs and liquidate positions.

Yesterday’s Price Action

High : 7733

Low : 7426

Close : 7562

Support

7829/01

7779/72

7747/43

7696

7671

7630/11

7584/71

7513/06

Resistance

7895

7945/70

8020

8070**

8115/25

8198

8236

8274/80**

7880/83

Today’s Pivot Points

7932

7825

7625

7518

7318

SHORT TERM HOURLY FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS

7764

7697

7637

7577

7510

LONGER TERM DAILY FIB LEVELS

7111

7452

7757

8061

8402

LIGHT CRUDE OIL May Contract

Good bounce off 47.26 and buying has taken this higher once more today to 51.53. The longer term 61.8 retracement target is at 51.78 and this may initially limit the rise, given today’s rallies. However this is not the end of the buyers story and the higher end of the comfort zone is at 54.20/66 and this is where potential sellers should be waiting with profit taking buyers.

You should see the market back off these higher levels, but support is well defended at 49.40 and buyers will re-enter the market at these lower levels. Only below 49.00 would buyers wobble slightly.

So 54.20/66 remains your short term objective. A break above here would trigger buyers leaping into action with the longer term objective of 64.50 firmly in their sights.

Yesterday’s Price Action

High : 48.96

Low : 47.26

Close : 48.39

Support

51.20

50.25

49.87

49.40

48.30

48.03/47.94

47.65

46.75/61**

Resistance

51.30

52.45

53.65

54.00/20

54.66/70*

55.40

56.93

57.25*

Today’s Pivot Points

49.90

49.14

48.20

47.44

46.50

SHORT TERM HOURLY FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS

49.38

50.24

51.01

51.78

52.64

LONGER TERM DAILY FIB LEVELS

49.40

46.61

44.11

41.61

38.82

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