Futures Outlook For Monday: S&P, Mini Dow Jones, Crude Oil, Spot Gold

By Carol Harmer on March 30, 2009 | More Posts By Carol Harmer | Author's Website

S&P 500 June Contract

S&P has come sharply lower through level of support with 793.72 holding currently. This pullback should not be unexpected given the recent action of the market. At 789.60 it would only have retraced 25% of the move higher, so this is not the start of another bear run. It is currently only a correction to the short term uptrend and can actually go lower and not interfere with buying opportunities.

Below 793 would see short term selling pressure with 789.60 then targeted.

You will find buyers at these lower levels so this support is expected to hold first attempt. If it doesn’t, buyers would reverse positions and then would expect this to come lower with 777/775 then your short term objective.

Resistance located at 806 now. If above here it would take off the immediate downside threat and see rallies through to 818/821,

Yesterday’ Price Action

High : 829.60

Low : 809.50

Close : 816.10

Support

793.72

787/84

777/775

769.30

766.20

759.30

748/46

739/34**

Resistance

798

804/806

807.95

818

821

825/826

831

838.6/840.20*

Today’s Pivot Points

838.5

827.3

818.4

807.2

798.3

SHORT TERM HOURLY FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS

813.37

804.28

796.15

788.01

778.92

LONGER TERM DAILY FIB LEVELS

789.60

767.79

748.30

728.80

707.00

Mini Dow Jones June Contract

Dow has support at current levels due to the 50% fib level evident from the last couple of days of strength. If below 7520 buyers would only then re-think their positions. A loss of this support would signal further declines with 7460 the nearby objective.

Here also support would be found, and buyers should re-enter the market at these lower levels looking for at least a move back through to 7696/7710. Buyers would be covering to here, and sellers would feel more confident to attack the market from a higher stance. Above 7710 however should see a resumption of the uptrend and sellers should reverse their positions However, a break below 7460 keeps the immediate bias to the downside and triggers slide to 7370.

Yesterday’s Price Action

High : 7868

Low : 7677

Close : 7762

Support

7536/20

7474/46

7370

7334

7279/73

7238*

7202/7183

7150**

Resistance

7571/84

7611

7670

7693/96

7743/47

7772/79

7809/29

7880/83

Today’s Pivot Points

7960

7861

7769

7670

7578

SHORT TERM HOURLY FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS

7710

7620

7540

7460

7370

LONGER TERM DAILY FIB LEVELS

7526

7338

7171

7003

6815

LIGHT CRUDE OIL May Contract

Oil lost ground on Friday and today has been much of the same. The last line of defence in the short term is 50.25. If this support breaks buyers would lose confidence and take to reversing their bullish stand.

48.91 to 48.30 would be the targeted area then on a break below 50.25. This is the longer term 25% fib level and should offer the market a good level of support.

Buyers would feel a little safer buying at these lower levels for the market to come back higher and resume its uptrend.

However a loss through 48.00 would negate this scenario and show further weakening with 45.30 then the short term attraction. Buyers will re-emerge at these lower levels.

Yesterday’s Price Action

High : 54.28

Low : 51.64

Close : 52.38

Support

50.50/25

49.87

49.55

49.13

48.91

48.42

47.94

Resistance

51.30

52.45

53.65

54.00/20

54.66/70

55.40

56.93

57.25*

Today’s Pivot Points

55.40

53.89

52.76

51.25

50.12

SHORT TERM HOURLY FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS

53.19

52.41

51.72

51.02

50.25

LONGER TERM DAILY FIB LEVELS

48.33

53.04

57.25

61.46

66.17

SPOT GOLD

Gold held support and should trade higher. It is only below 911.35 that it would weaken, and sellers would then push this lower with 891 then the targeted area.

At the lower levels buyers will take profits, thus expect this support to hold.

Resistance located at 925. If this point breaks fresh buying will be evident leading this higher for 941 to 946. Buyers will be taking profits at these higher levels. They would re enter the market above 946 for 950 then 954. Again expect profit taking.

YESTERDAY’S PRICE ACTION

High : 937.20

Low : 919.20

Close : 922.10

Support

918/915.25

911.35

904/903

900.40

891.20/00**

882.60

880.75

874.95

Resistance

925

930/31

941.94

946

948.80

950.85

954

956.65

Today’s Pivot Points

943.81

932.43

925.81

914.43

907.81

LONGER TERM DAILY FIB LEVELS

930.51

889.94

853.67

817.40

SHORT TERM HOURLY FIB RETRACEMENT LEVELS

946.07

934.95

925.01

915.07

903.95

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