The Current Bullish Behavior Doesn’t Mean We Are Now In A Bull Market

At the end of last week the market had made impressive progress through a strong zone of resistance, but it had become extremely overbought on a short-term basis. My conclusion was that we should at least get a short-term correction, since we are in a bear market. Instead, short-term indicators backed off while the market continued higher. This is bullish behavior - the kind of thing you will see time after time in a bull market. That does not mean we are now in a bull market, but it does imply that the current price advance (now about +25%) may not be over. During bear market rallies, the market can persist in positive behavior, so that many people think a new bull market has begun. But eventually, the bear reasserts and the down trend resumes.

On the chart we can see that there is a short-term line of resistance just above current price levels. Even if the rally is destined to continue, it is likely that we will experience a short-term pull-back as the market prepares to break through the resistance.

I don’t mention nominal cycles much any more because they can muddy the water, but based upon my cycle count, a 20-Week Cycle low is due in a week or so. A possible scenario is that, after a short correction/retest, a new 20-Week Cycle could launch the second half of the current rally. My upside target would be about 1,000 on the S&P 500.

Our mechanical Thrust/Trend Model (T/TM) for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) switched to a buy signal on 3/17/2009, and virtually all index and sectors we track have also switched to buy signals. All these new T/TM buy signals are in short-term mode at this time. They were triggered when the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) and Percent Buy Index (PBI) crossed up through their moving averages. We are now waiting for the 20-EMA to cross up through the 50-EMA, which will confirm the short-term signal and make whipsaw less likely.

Bottom Line: The market recovered from a severe breakdown in prices, something I did not think it could do. This is evidence that possibly a new bullish phase has begun, but, in my opinion, it is a bull phase of an ongoing secular bear market. The rally can be played on a short-term basis, with the idea that we are riding a bear, not a bull.

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