US Earnings Preview For Mar 30 - Apr 3

Only 52 companies are confirmed to report, including S&P 500 members Apollo Group (APOL), Lennar Corporation (LEN), Monsanto Company (MON) and Micron Technology (MU).

First-quarter earnings season will “officially” start on Apr 7, when Alcoa (AA) reports. The bulk of reports won’t be seen until the second-half of the month.

March employment data is due out on Friday. Keep an eye on nonfarm payrolls, forecasts have the decline holding in the 600k range for the fourth-consecutive month.

• Tuesday: March Conference Board consumer confidence, March Chicago PMI, January CaseShiller home price index
• Wednesday: March ISM manufacturing index, February pending home sales, February construction spending, March ADP employment data, March auto sales, weekly crude inventories
• Thursday: February factory orders, weekly initial jobless claims
• Friday: March unemployment and nonfarm payrolls, March ISM services index

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at a Fed Reserve credit market symposium on Friday, Apr 3.

Vice Chairman Donald Kohn will also speak on Friday. He will discuss measures to pull the U.S. out of the recession at the College of Wooster, in Wooster, Ohio.

G20 members will meet on Thursday, Apr 20. The meeting could cause some volatility in the dollar, though a major announcement is not expected.

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be making appearances on the Sunday morning talk shows on Mar 29 (Meet the Press and This Week with George Stephanopoulos); his performance could impact whether stocks and the dollar start the week on a good note or not.

The markets are overbought following the biggest 10-day rally since 1938. Continue to keep an eye on Washington for news about the banking and automobile sectors.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

Apollo Group (APOL) topped expectations during the past 3 quarters by an average margin of nearly 10 cents per share. Ahead of the company’s fiscal second-quarter report, one of the covering brokerage analysts raised his forecast. Though the change did not impact the consensus earnings estimate of 65 cents per share, it did result in a more bullish most accurate estimate of 68 cents per share. Apollo Group is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Mar 31, after the close of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

During the past 30 days, 5 of the more than 30 covering brokerage analysts have cut their fiscal fourth-quarter forecasts on Research in Motion (RIMM). The revisions knocked the consensus estimate down by a penny to 84 cents per share. Though not large, the changes are notable because the Blackberry maker has missed twice in the past 3 quarters. Plus, forecasts for fiscal 2010 have been tumbling. Research in Motion is scheduled to report on Thursday, Apr 2, after the close of trading.

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