Eight Not-So-Pretty Observations From Big Sky Country

My kids and I love it here in Montana … the rugged Rockies, the majestic wildlife, the crisp air. And if I ever meet Al Gore, I am going to thank him for inventing the Internet. After all without the Internet, I wouldn’t be able to write my Money and Markets columns from my precious home.

The days of cowboys, Indians, and buffaloes are long gone from Montana. Nevertheless, Montana is still a little behind the times - in a charming, folksy way. And even though the Big Sky state is thousands of miles from Manhattan, what I see happening here is useful in understanding what is happening to our country’s economy.

And none of these observations are pretty …

Big Sky Observation #1: Driving from my house to my daughter’s ballet studio, I pass two homes that have Bobcats sitting in their front yards with For Sale signs hanging from them. Bobcats are those mini-excavators used for landscaping and medium-sized excavation jobs. It wasn’t very long ago when contractors with Bobcats were busy night and day. Now, scores of these expensive brutes are sitting idle … collecting dust.

I learn a lot by listening to the folks in my town’s little café.

Big Sky Observation #2: My town has a little café where all the “good old boys” hang out. Most of them are farmers, carpenters, electricians, and all sorts of construction workers. Last Monday morning, a gravel truck driver, a painter, and a drywall finisher were there commiserating about getting laid off.

Big Sky Observation #3: A few nights ago, I was talking to the owner of a small pizza restaurant. And he told me that he’s had a steady stream of intelligent, college-educated men coming in looking for work. “These guys,” he said, “are willing to do anything from washing dishes to delivering pizza.”

Big Sky Observation #4: One of my closest friends, a highly-skilled home remodeler, is leaving his family in Montana for a couple months while he goes to Maryland. Why? He says there isn’t a lick of construction work to be found here.

Big Sky Observation #5: The unemployment rate in my county rose to 11.3 percent in February, a 15-year high. That’s awful. But it was even worse in the two neighboring counties where unemployment shot up to 15.6 percent and 17.7 percent.

Big Sky Observation #6: The Realtor whom I’ve used to buy and sell millions of dollars of property said his business is so pathetic that he’s renting out his Kubota backhoe to help make ends meet.

Big Sky Observation #7: Semitool (SMTL) is based in northwest Montana and makes semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Business is so slow that Semitool has been forced to cut production and costs to stay alive. Yesterday, one of my friends who works there told me that Semitool gave 60-day Reduction in Force notices to its employees last week.

Our local sportsmen store can’t keep ammo in stock. This tells me that gun owners are preparing for the worst.

Big Sky Observation #8: Hunting is big business in Montana. But even though hunting season was over months ago, our local sportsmen store is consistently out of ammunition. And when they do get a new delivery, it only takes a few days before they’re out again. This tells me that gun owners are preparing for the worst.

Now I know what you’re thinking: What the heck does Montana have to do with what’s happening on Wall Street or Main Street for that matter?

A whole lot actually …

That’s because you could find this same discouraging news in almost any part of the country!

• The real estate market stinks,
• The construction industry is crippled,
• Unemployment is rising,
• And businesses are hunkering down for tough times.

And I am absolutely convinced it’s going to get worse - a whole lot worse - before it gets better. That of course has a lot of important investment implications … especially if you agree with me.

What You Should Consider Doing …

Running for cover! The most important strategy to follow for 2009 is to increase your allocation of good old safe cash. How much depends on your situation. But I think anything less than 50 percent in cash is a mistake.

Use every market rally, such as the Dow (^DJI) going above 7,500, as an opportunity to sell (even at a loss) and increase your cash.

Investing with a safety net. If you do decide to invest in the stock market, consider one of the single premium life or annuity products that offers returns based on a percentage of a stock market index’s growth while protecting you from runaway losses.

Gold is no longer just an inflation hedge. It is also the ultimate safe haven for investors.

Buying some haywire insurance. I’m talking about gold. In the old days, gold was primarily an inflation hedge. But its role has changed. It’s now become a haven for investors seeking the ultimate in safety. I believe that gold should do extremely well if (a) the stock market gets clobbered, (b) the value of the U.S. dollar collapses, (c) the rampant government spending turns into rampant inflation, or (d) the global recession turns into a global depression.

Frankly, I am convinced that (a), (b), and (c) are almost sure things. And I am very worried that (d) is a real possibility.

To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive.

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