Quick Preview Of US First-Quarter Earnings

First-quarter earnings season will be lousy, which isn’t be surprising given the global recession.

Current projections for S&P 500 members call for the median company to report a 19.3% year-over-year decline in profits.

Some of the year-over-year declines will be dramatic with 57 companies forecast to report EPS declines of more than 100%. Included in this group are SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) - projected loss of 75 cents versus a Q108 profit of 13 cents - and Ford Motor Company (F) - projected loss of $1.09 versus Q108 profit of 20 cents. SNDK is hurting from weakness in semiconductor prices and Ford, well, you know why that company is suffering.

Conversely, only 8 companies are likely to report triple-digit increases in profits. Refiners TesoroC Corporation (TSO) and Sunoco, Inc. (SUN) are included in this group, a reflection of the sharp decline in oil prices versus what Texas tea was trading for last year. TSO should report earnings of 45 cents versus a Q108 loss of 75 cents. SUN should report a profit of 60 cents versus a Q108 loss of 50 cents.

We’ll see some initial first-quarter reports this week, but most companies will not report until the second-half of April.

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