US Earnings Preview For Mar 16 - 20

The earnings calendar is limited this week with just 93 companies confirmed to report. First-quarter earnings season will not “officially” start until April.

We will, however, get our first glimpse at first-quarter earnings as companies with fiscal quarters ending in February start to release results. Among these early reporters are Adobe Systems (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), Nike (NKE) and Oracle (ORCL).

Excluded from the list are the investment banks. Bear Stearns and Lehman are obviously gone. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), which had reported quarterly results last March, both told me their earnings reports would not be issued until the second-half of April. (Specific dates have not been announced.)

The Fed will hold a 2-day meeting starting on Tuesday with the statement released around 2:15 ET on Wednesday afternoon. Look for additional announcements about the Fed’s plan to expand its balance sheet by purchasing various types of debt.

• Monday: February industrial production and capacity utilization, March Empire State manufacturing index
• Tuesday: February housing starts, February building permits, February Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Wednesday: February Consumer Price Index (CPI), fourth-quarter current account balance, weekly crude inventories, Fed statement
• Thursday: February Leading Indicators, weekly initial jobless claims
• Friday: February Phil Fed survey

Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo will testify about bank regulations in front of a Senate committee on Thursday, Mar 19. Additionally, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at a community bankers’ convention on Friday, Mar 20. His speech is entitled, “The Financial Crisis and Community Banking”.

Many traders will be looking to see if stocks can keep their upward momentum. The major indexes are not overbought or near resistance, 2 positive factors.

That said, wildcard events (e.g. threats of corporate bankruptcies, initiatives from the Obama administration, credit rating downgrades, bank announcements, etc.) still remain the primary drivers of market sentiment.

We’re coming off a good week and let’s hope the bear market rally continues. Just understand, however, that the punch bowl is running dry.

Have a happy St. Patrick’s Day and remember to wear something green on Tuesday!

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

Guess, Inc. (GES) has a long record of topping quarterly expectations. Recent positive revisions by 2 of the covering brokerage analysts suggest another positive surprise could be forthcoming. The most accurate estimate is 53 cents per share, a penny above the consensus estimate.

The big issue with GES, however, could be its guidance. Brokerage analysts cut their fiscal 2010 expectations last week, causing the consensus earnings estimate to fall to $1.98. Therefore, traders may want to use caution ahead of the earnings report.

Guess is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Mar 17, after the close of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

FedEx Corporation has missed once in the past 3 quarters. Ahead of the company’s fiscal third-quarter report, 6 brokerage analysts have cut their profit projections. The negative revisions sent the consensus earnings estimate 3 cents lower to 47 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bearish at 44 cents per share. FedEx is scheduled to report on Thursday, Mar 19, before the start of trading.

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