India Stock Market: Idiotic Analysis To The Fore

Bottom Forming: Stupid Analysis

In simple terms, these low P/E ratio figures show that an investor who was willing to pay Rs 22-25 for every rupee an individual share earned a year ago, is willing to pay only Rs 8.71-10.15 for the same rupee-earning now

I want to yell at this idiotic analysis. IT IS ABOUT THE E YOU FOOL. THE E - earnings - are dropping, they are not constant. As long as analysts like these are calling a bottom, the bottom is nowhere in sight.

I think this market is going to have more problems as we confront the real possibility that we will get some really poor earnings for the first and second quarters. The economy is simply weak, and that weakness is hitting more and more companies. From exporting companies to the big international firms, a global slowdown is hitting almost everyone.  We could see a real bear market rally luring investors back in, just to crush their hopes this summer.

And Protectionism is rearing its ugly head,  From Bloomberg:

American exports have slumped at a 44% annual pace in the most recent six months of data, with imports shrinking 51%, probably the most since the Great Depression, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. The figures may add to pressure on the Obama administration to rework international agreements and include protections for US workers and the environment. The US steel industry is planning to bring anti-dumping charges against foreign steel. India just raised steel tariffs. It seems like every day I read that someone somewhere is calling for their particular industry to be protected, bailed out, or subsidized. And it is not just the US. It is happening all over the world.

Enjoy this rally while it lasts. The G-20 is happening and will do nothing - hopefully.  Prepare for the next down leg and have full confidence in our politicians…to do the worst thing possible.

Subscribe by RSS Subscribe by Email