The Stock Market Is Indecisive…

… Even if S&P 500 (^GSPC) candles say otherwise:

$SPX  3 Month, Daily
I did two different types of technical analysis tonight on the $SPX and how it’s been trending.  Not unexpectedly, we saw signs of weakness in the $SPX as Direxion Financial Bear 3X Shares ETF (FAZ) and UltraShort Real Estate ProShares ETF (SRS) controlled the market from about 11 am until close.  Interestingly enough, the $TRIN was up above yesterday’s close of 1.01 to 1.11.  I found this particularly interesting because it increased from the open on, with the only decrease coming from today’s (Thursday) morning correction of yesterday’s disastrous close.  See for yourself:

$TRIN  20 Day, 20 Minute
With the $TRIN breaking ahead of the overall decreasing trendline set back in the beginning of the month, FAZ and SRS created some monumental gains out of no volume at all.  This makes me bittersweet, because since the beginning of the year we have been experiencing BULLISH runs on lower-than-normal volume.  To see a BEARISH run on lower-than-normal volume may indicate that we could go higher, but it could also indicate that people don’t have the big ones to play the leveraged inverses.  I am bittersweet because if we do happen to go on a bear market rally in the nearer future, I can’t trade my inverses.  This makes me sad, but seeing the market doing well makes me quite a happy camper (or trader, in this context).

Due to the action in FAZ and SRS, I have put together charts of these two inverse ETFs, as well as a chart for FAS just for good measure:

FAS  10 Day, 15 Minute

FAZ  10 Day, 15 Minute

SRS  10 Day, 15 Minute
The breakout on FAZ and SRS are ridiculous (in a good way, of course).  The one thing I’ve noticed for FAZ is its true lack to develop any type of a volume pattern for the trading session, which gives me only a broad idea as to where it may go compared to the overall market trend (for extra guidance, the RSI-FS%K recommended an overnight hold after buying @ $48.84).  SRS, on the other hand, showed a significant pivot point in the intra-day volume at 12 pm, trading out of a price-volume divergence and into a price-volume increase that continued into the close.  SRS may be a tad overbought as of now, but with today’s close, it has the potential to hit $82 (its next resistance level).

In my opinion, I am expecting a slight pullback in the iETFs with a high open based off of the Futures I’m currently watching.  We’re looking more and more like the bull market could take over, but there’s no way I’m jumping the gun after checking these $SPX charts:

$SPX  20 Day, 60 Minute
A new, “Breakout-And-Die” pattern (or the B.A.D. Pattern, if you will) has been formed @ $SPX 778.07.  What this pattern consists of is an $SPX breakout for a minimum of two (2) days and a maximum of four (4) days, and then falling through the floor (or the current support level).  Because of this pattern, there is too much pointing to a market collapse next week, especially if we have a green day tomorrow after the Preliminary GDP report.  I can already tell you that holding over the weekend is not only ludicrous, but it is also completely risky.  With that said, if you end up picking the right side by holding over the weekend (and not getting a single hour of sleep due to stress), the rewards you will reap will probably be astounding.
While looking at the current $SPX pattern, I had this awkward idea of using a Fibo Fan (which I used to use a lot more often than I do now) in order to find a possible trading range for the index.  I received this chart as a result:

$SPX  20 Day, 60 Minute (Fibo Fan)
Out of my curiosity came this interesting and unexplainable work of art.  With all the fear involved in the market, you can still put up a Fibo Fan and get a damn decent trading range estimation!  The Fibo Fan caught two of the key, bullish reversal points seen over the past week, as well as showing us two possible ranges for market collapse and market rally (the light green and pink boxes on the last lines of the fan).  As interesting as this may look, we have to wait and see whether or not it’s reliable.  Next week is therefore the test for the Fibo Fan trading ranges.
In other news, if the market goes bullish, I’m looking towards Apple (AAPL):

AAPL  10 Day, 15 Minute
For now, I’m yet again undecided on a trading side (bullish or bearish).  I’m still holding SLB (bumped its stop to $36.50) and other than that I have my cash ready to make a move.  For now, I’m happy with my strategy, and I hope all of you are as well.  Good luck tomorrow, watch the volume CLOSELY, and don’t forget FAZ and SRS!!
UPDATE:

• Jindal Gets Insulted - Absolutely hilarious.
• Watch Goldman Sachs (GS) and its resistance of $93.00.
• First Solar (FSLR) might be a steal here for the long haul, but watch its price closely: the $90 - $100 range is much more realistic.
• Either DIG/DUG or TNA/TZA will be up next for the 3rd “Bulls vs. Bears” i/ETF Comparative Analysis article.

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