Wells Fargo Must Work Down Risk

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) completed the acquisition of Wachovia, effective December 31, 2008, making it the fourth largest bank in the country, by assets. While the acquisition has expanded WFC’s footprint, it has also substantially increased the credit risk, due to Wachovia’s large exposure to problem assets.

The company is scheduled to release its 4Q08 earnings results on January 28, 2009. While we think that WFC is relatively well positioned compared to its peers, higher credit losses resulting from the continued deterioration in the housing markets and the integration costs associated with merger will impact the earnings in the coming quarters. Ahead of the results, we are maintaining our Hold recommendation on the shares.

WFC currently trades at 12.8 times the consensus forward estimate, a 6% discount to the peer group median. On a price-to-book basis, the shares trade at a 232% premium to the peer group median. Relative pricing continues to look attractive on a P/E-to-growth (PEG) basis, using the consensus forward estimate and the consensus long-term growth rate. WFC’s PEG ratio is now 1.39, a 35% discount to the 2.15 median for the peer group. Our six-month target price of $26.50 per share assumes that the shares will trade at 13.2 times our 2008 earnings estimate of $2.01 per share.

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