Cheaper Gas Not Enticing Consumers To Spend More

US preliminary retail sales reports for the holidays are in. According to SpendingPulse, a unit of MasterCard (MA), total retail sales (excluding autos) declined 8% year-over-year for the period Dec 1 through Dec 24.

More troubling was the report issued by ShopperTrak. It reported that customer visits to retailers declined 24% (the largest drop ever) last weekend versus last year. Keep in mind that the weekend before Christmas is usually the busiest shopping time of the year, as shoppers look for last-minute gifts. ShopperTrak also estimated that retails sales for Dec 19- Dec 21 fell 5.3%.

Our take is that sales trends have deteriorated from November into December. Falling gasoline prices are not enticing consumers to consume more. In light of a weak economy, higher unemployment, and tighter credit markets, consumers are choosing to spend less and save more. Those who are spending money in retail stores are buying heavily discounted items at name brand stores, trading down to discounters/liquidators, and only buying what is needed.

The biggest surprise during the holidays is that the huge decline in gasoline did not spur even a slight uptick in spending. Instead, the savings at the pump has been saved or used to pay down existing debt. A higher savings rate is a long-term positive for the economy.

Unfortunately, the transition from borrowing and spending to saving is going to put a great deal of pressure on retailers in the near term. As a result, retailers including JC Penney (JCP), Sears (SHLD), Best Buy (BBY), AnnTaylor (ANN), Saks (SKS), and Macy’s (M) are offering huge post-holiday discounts beginning today to clear out inventories.

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