US Earnings Preview For Dec 22-26

Volume should be comparatively light over the final 2 weeks of the year, with no schedule events of significant importance occurring. Year-end window dressing will have an impact on trading direction, though many traders and fund managers are simply looking ahead to 2009.

The U.S. exchanges will close early on Christmas Eve. New Year’s Eve (Dec 31) will be a full trading day, however. Expect light volume on the next 2 Fridays, Dec 26 and Jan 2.

Only 7 companies are scheduled to report Christmas week. S&P 500 (^GSPC) members Walgreen Company (WAG) and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) will release results on Monday and Tuesday, respectively.

Key economic reports will include:

• Tuesday: November new home sales, November existing home sales, final December University of Michigan consumer sentiment, final third-quarter GDP
• Wednesday: November durable goods orders, November personal income and spending, weekly crude inventories, weekly initial jobless claims

No Fed officials are scheduled to give speeches.

Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy Hanukkah.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

Trends in earnings estimate revisions do not suggest any of the companies reporting will top expectations.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

Micron Technology, Inc. missed expectations during 3 out of the last 4 quarters. Ahead of the semiconductor’s fiscal first-quarter report, analysts are lowering their forecasts. The consensus earnings estimate calls for a loss of 42 cents per share, 2 cents wider than the average forecast of a month ago. The most accurate estimate is even more bearish at a loss of 44 cents per share. Micron Technology is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Dec 23, after the close of trading.

Walgreen Company experienced a 0.9% decline in same-store sales last month, reflecting weakness in both front-end and pharmacy sales. In response, 5 of the 17 covering brokerage analysts cut their fiscal first-quarter guidance. These revisions led to a 1-cent drop in the consensus earnings estimate to 46 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is slightly more bearish at 45 cents per share. WAG has missed once in the past 2 quarters. Walgreen is scheduled to report on Monday, Dec 22, before the start of trading.

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