Earnings Preview For Dec 8-12

Just 49 companies have been confirmed to report for the second week of December. Within this group are S&P 500 (^GSPC) members AutoZone, Inc. (AZO), Ciena Corporation (CIEN), Costco (COST), H&R Block, Inc. (HRB), The Kroger Co. (KR), National Semiconductor Corporation (NSM) and Pall Corporation (PLL).

(The light earnings calendar is typical for this time of year. Except for a mid-December bump when some early reporters give their end-of-year results, there will not be a significant number of earnings reports until the second-half of January.)

The scheduled economic data should not move the markets significantly. October pending homes sales might get more attention on Tuesday given the recent rebound in homebuilding stocks, but I don’t expect it to have a meaningful impact.

• Tuesday: October pending home sales
• Wednesday: October wholesale inventories, November treasury deficit, weekly crude inventories
• Thursday: November import and export prices, October trade balance, weekly initial jobless claims
• Friday: November retail sales, preliminary December University of Michigan consumer confidence, November producer price index (PPI), October business inventories

Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner will speak in Geneva about the potential for market instability on Monday. Later in the day, Vice Chairman Donald Kohn will talk about the banking system at a housing forum in Washington, D.C.

The Fed will hold its final scheduled meeting of the year on Dec 16. Futures are pricing a 75-basis point cut.

Congress could hold a vote on whether to extend the Big 3 financing. Many senators were not swayed on Thursday, however, so it is unclear what the future of the bailout is.

Unscheduled events remain a wildcard, including any new actions taken by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson or new economic proposals from President-elect Barack Obama.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

Trends in earnings estimate revisions do not suggest any of the companies reporting will top expectations.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

All of the covering brokerage analysts cut their fiscal third-quarter profit projections on CKE Restaurants, Inc. (CKR) over the past few weeks. One reason might have been the company’s observation that restaurant operating costs rose 60 to 80 basis points during the quarter. The downward revisions caused the consensus earnings estimate to fall 7 cents to 10 cents per share. CKE has missed during the past 3 quarters. CKE Restaurants is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Dec 10, after the close of trading.

Last month, National Semiconductor Corporation (NSM) revised its fiscal second-quarter revenue guidance. Due to weakness in the wireless handset market, the company expects sales to total between $420 and $425 million. (Previously, NSM predicted sales of $470 to $480 million.) The majority of the covering brokerage analysts quickly cut their profit forecasts, causing the consensus earnings estimate to fall 8 cents to 24 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bearish at 20 cents per share. Investors should also note that NSM missed first-quarter expectations by a penny per share. National Semiconductor is scheduled to report on Monday, Dec 8, after the close of trading.

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