US Stock Market Volume Likely To Be The Lowest Today

In today’s (Friday) post-US Thanksgiving shortened session; volume is likely to be the lowest of the year, and prices side-track, with an upward bias into the close. Equity markets of the world that were open yesterday and earlier this morning were higher - until Europe opened.

To get caught up, on Wednesday the DJIA (^DJI) (+247.14 +2.91% to 8726.61), S&P 500 (^GSPC) (+30.29 +3.53% to 887.68) and NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) (+67.37 +4.60% to 1532.10) were very strong. Toronto Composite and Venture Board closed Wednesday up +2.38% and +1.59% to 8643.52 and 731.39 respectively. Yesterday, they closed up +1.28% and +2.30% to 8753.77 and 748.23 respectively.

On Wednesday in NY, the leading sectors were: Consumer Discretionary (XLY +5.9%), Energy (XLE +5.6%), Financials (XLF +4.7%) and Basic Materials (XLB +4.6%). There was only one loser, which was Utilities (XLU -0.3%).

The winning industries were Oil Services ($OSX +8.8%), Semi-conductors ($SOX +7.6%), and NatGas ($XNG +7.0%). Goldminers ($XAU +4.6%) were strong as well. Big Pharma ($DRG +0.3%) was a laggard.

In the Cara 100, the winners included TCK +24.7% and SLW +16.6%, after I had opined that both would do well on their own merits - if only the Bay Street Bandits would leave them alone. KB +22.2%, TGP +17.8%, MBT +16.3% and GGB +15.9% were also strong. Note how varied the industry groups are. The market strength is broad based.

The Cara 100 losers were WBK -4.7%, IBN -3.2% and GSK -2.6%.

The US long bond ($USB) gained a further +0.90% to 128.05 as yields dropped across the board. If the Depository Trust Corp system in the US were functioning properly, these bond prices would likely fall as capital would move faster into equities and banks would trust one another to properly settle their trades.

$GOLD dropped -$9.20/oz to 811.30 on Wednesday at the close and is about the same this morning.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) gained +$3.67/bbl to 54.44 on Wednesday at the close, but is down a bit to 53.77 earlier this morning.

At 7:54am ET this morning, the spot precious metals markets were unremarkable, and largely unchanged from early in the week: gold 811.68; palladium 187; platinum 867; and silver 10.12.

Earlier in the day today, the Asia-Pacific equity markets were higher except for Shanghai (-2.44% to 1871.2). The Japanese Nikkei (+1.66% to 8512.3), Australia (+4.10% to 3672.7), Hong Kong (+2.48% to 13888.2), and India (+0.73% to 9092.7) traded higher. The world is in mourning for the Mumbai tragedy where so many hundred civilians and police were killed and injured by terrorists. The Mumbai equity market was closed for a day, but prices there lifted this morning.

Earlier in Europe (7:50am ET), the three main bourses were weak: French CAC was down -1.74%; the German DAX -1.78%; and the UK FTSE -0.64%. There were two selling waves (4:15am ET for 30 minutes, and another from 7:00am ET for 30 minutes). The market there is nervous awaiting the opening of the US market to see if the banks are looking ok.

Comments & Outlook

Equity prices are lifting. Most traders are unaware that the NYSE has just had the strongest 4-day rally since 1933.

I have been very busy and not able to keep up the blogging as before. Yesterday, I just took the day off from markets. It was a good break to enjoy the beach. I still managed to put in six hours work, but at least that was down from the usual 16.

I expect not much to happen to markets. The DJIA futures were down a bit to 8635 around 7:55am ET. The $USD was strong (86.705) and Euro weak (127.27).

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