Barclays Target Cut, Still A Hold

We are maintaining our Hold on Barclays PLC (BCS), but cutting our target price to $9.25. In its third quarter trading update, Barclays noted that profit before tax for the 2008’s first nine months was slightly ahead of 2007. Revenue growth was strong, and costs grew broadly in line with the rate of income growth.

Impairment charges grew at a similar rate to the first half of 2008. Barclays announced £7.3 billion of new capital, including £3 billion of reserve capital instruments, with an associated issue of warrants, and £4.3 billion of mandatorily convertible notes.

We are reducing our EPADS estimates to $3.22 from $3.80 for 2008 and to $2.08 from $4.20 for 2009, mainly due to dilution caused from the capital raising and appreciation of the $ against the £. We expect results to reflect global markets turmoil, economic weakening, and the recent $1.75 billion acquisition of Lehman Brothers North American operations. Barclays eliminated its final dividend for 2008.

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