Very Cautiously Bullish

The Investor’s Business Daily signaled that we are in a confirmed rally after Thursday’s rally. I see a remarkable number of charts that look like this:

Coach (COH) came off of the low with increasing volume, pulled back on decreasing volume, and rose again on increasing volume to create a higher low. We may have a confirmed rally, but volume is lackluster, and leadership non-existent. I am not seeing many charts to inspire trades in either direction, so I am likely to focus on a narrow set of charts that are providing the clearest signals.

- iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM): This is a similar pattern to the one above, but I am more impressed with the volume here. If the market can get some juice, EEM is likely to provide some good short-term trading on the long side.

- iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI): Options activity may have held prices back on Friday, leading to a possible surge on Monday. FXI volume indicates buyers are interested.

- Knology (KNOL): Big volume on Friday indicates we may get a good bounce from this level.

- Exide Technologies (XIDE): Considering a long position with a stop under Friday’s low.

I expect to be trading lightly in the early week. We need to see more volume in either the buy or sell side to determine the next big move.

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