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David Spurr

Gameplan For Trading These Choppy Markets

By David Spurr on October 14, 2008 | More Posts By David Spurr | Author's Website

(XLF) - Financials

(DGP) - 2x Long Gold

(UNG) - Natural Gas

(SPY)

(QQQQ)

Wave 3 - Difficult market to try to trade over the last several weeks, I seem to be making the same mistakes over and over again.  Volatility was crazy high. Need to be better sticking  to my original gameplan, which was to only trade in the direction of the major trend, which is still down.  I feel that the countertrend rallies are too quick and short to justify trading.  The risk reward is not attractive enough.  In an attempt to be more disciplined in this countertrend wave 4 rally.  I will make a list of rules that I will adhere to.  I will not deviate from this list. Price Targets:

  • SPX Target Wave 4 (countertrend Rally) - 1131.84 (61.8% retracement of 8/11-10/10 move).
  1. Look to enter as targets are acheived
  2. SPY Long Puts -  SPY @107
  3. QQQQ Long Puts - QQQ’s @ 40
  4. Long UNG - Positive Price Action  >=31.67 on 13,837,837 or greater volume.
  5. DGP - Long @15.56
  6. XLF - Puts XLF@ 20
  7. XLE - Puts XLE@63.10

Rules :

  • Don’t hold positions overnight.
  • Stops - Do not reduce - Keep at 1 bar prior swing high+ $1.00 /  60 min chart ;
  • Daily Volume Must Correlate - Declining Volume at tops
  • Position Size - 2 unit max until trade is profitable
  • When Price Target achieved on Daily Chart -  must have MACDH>0, Hourly
  • When Price Target achieved on Daily Chart - Neg Trend in MACDH, Hourly
  • When Price Target is achieved on Daily Chart - Stochastic from >80 on Hourly.

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