August Performance Of Major US Retailers

Here is a quick rundown of the performance of various leading retailers during the month of August:

Clothing retailers Aeropostale (ARO) (13%) and Buckle (BKE) (22.4%) reported solid numbers, while Abercrombie (ANF) (-11%), Hot Topic (HOTT) (-2.7%), Limited Brands (LTD) (-7%) all showed declines. In general all clothing retailers showed YoY declines, making the performance of Aeropostale and Buckle even more exceptional.

Department stores did poorly all around: with J.C. Penney (JCP) (-4.9%), Kohl’s (KSS) (-5.8%), Dillard’s (DDS) (-7%), all showing declines.

Discounters fared okay with Wal-Mart (WMT) showing a 3% YoY increase in sales and Family Dollar (FDO) showing an increase of 3.6%; however Wal-Mart’s heavy bias towards grocery sales and pharmacy products suggests that their sales numbers were helped by inflationary pressures.

Target (TGT) reported a YoY sales decline of -2.1%; I suspect that their recent poor results are a function of Target positioning itself as a trendy retailer as opposed to a low price leader, coupled with their product offerings leaning towards home furnishings, fashion, and other discretionary items. This puts them in the unfortunate position of not being the retailer you look to for cheap groceries or household necessities, in addition to being a retailer many consumers are cutting back on their spending with.

Still the fact that Target has higher income customers than Wal-Mart or Family Dollar should position them for a solid recovery over the medium to long-term, let’s not forget that the “retail slumming” effect means that the latter two retailers currently have customers that are shopping there out of need not out of choice. It stands to reason that some of their new customers are going to return to the places they used to shop once things recover.

Warehouse Stores also showed positive results with B.J.’s (BJ) and Costco (COST) reporting increases of 7.7% and 6% respectively; however their sales (like Wal-Mart’s) were undoubtedly helped by grocery inflation. The performance of the warehouse stores lends credence to theory of consumers cutting back on discretionary items, and hunting for bargains on household necessities, groceries, etc.

Luxury Retailers weren’t able to escape the effects of the economic downturn, with Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom (JWN) and Saks (SKS) reporting declines of -0.5%, -7.9% and -5.9%. I suspect (as I did before) that the declines at the luxury retailers are more due to the loss of their “poseur” or “faux housing wealth effect” customers, more than it’s an indication of people in the top 5-10% truly cutting back on their spending. Once the poseur shakeout is complete I think sales at the luxury retailers will stabilize.

When you look at the big picture you see that only two retailers who can truly celebrate right now are Aeropostale and Buckle, with the rest of the group either suffering declines or having positive results that are being muted by inflationary pressures that are goosing their revenue numbers.

While a lot of economists, analysts, et al, will point towards specific numbers for gas prices, a housing recovery, etc, etc, as being key to a consumer spending recovery, I think it will be more of a function of sentiment and financial health. Consumer sentiment is weak because of all the financial pressures consumers have been dealing with, things that have been building up for years in the form of debt loads, energy prices, healthcare prices, etc. The events of the last 18 months weren’t so much a singular shock that brought things down, as they were the straw that broke the camel’s back.

In fact you could argue that easy credit (credit cards, HELOCs, mortgages), etc, merely delayed the onset of the current consumer woes, and by all rights consumer spending should have been slowing down for several years running.

In other the weakening state of household balance sheets is the key driver behind the consumer spending slowdown; and a true recovery isn’t possible until the economy recovers AND consumers (on aggregate) are able to pay down debt, get their costs under control and improve their overall financial health. While improvements in various economic indicators will help things, the average person tends to base their view of the economy, their finances, etc, on how they’re able to make ends meet, not on a specific price for gas, unemployment rates, etc.

$3 gas and a stable housing market isn’t going to make someone who is struggling with their mortgage, maxed out credit cards, health insurance, grocery inflation, etc, feel especially confident about their finances and as if they can return to their old spending habits.

The final thing to consider is that the consumer spending levels of old were heavily driven by excessive use of credit, and many consumers are likely to “wise-up” and not spend above their means like they used to. This is not to say that all consumers will turn into debt hawks and cheap skates, just that it’s very likely that the go-forward retail spending picture won’t resemble the old one in terms of credit usage and overall magnitude.

I.e. consumer spending will recover but not necessarily to the degree and in the fashion that many expect.

You can get a more detailed rundown on the performance of the major retailers from the WSJ here.

Sources:

The WSJ: “August Sales Chart: How Retailers Fared” — August 4, 2008.

Disclosure: at the time of publishing the author didn’t own a position in any of the companies mentioned in this article; the ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author and shouldn’t be viewed as financial or investment advice.

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