Earnings Preview: Big Week Ahead For Economic Data

Zacks Investment Research

Earnings Preview – Week of May 29th

The focus this holiday-shortened week will be on the labor market, with the May non-farm payroll report coming out on Friday. Many will be hoping that the jobs report will help wash away the disappointing readings from the last two months. Relative to where expectations stood ahead of the April and March reports, it may not be that difficult to meet or exceed expectations this time around. There are a number of other major economic reports on the docket as well, with Thursday and Friday particularly busy.

The first quarter 2012 earnings season is effectively over, though we still have a handful of companies yet to report results. As of Friday (05/25), a total of 492 companies in the S&P 500 have already reported. We will get results from 55 companies this week, including 3 from the S&P 500.

Total earnings increased a solid 7.8% in the first quarter, compared to the preceding quarter’s 6.4% growth pace. Approximately 67% of companies came ahead of expectations, with a median earnings surprise of a very good 3.2%. Most of the growth came from top-line gains, with total revenues increasing 5% from the year-earlier level. Relative to earnings beats, far fewer companies were able to beat revenue expectations, with only about 40% of the companies coming out with positive revenue surprises.  

Monday – 5/28

  • Memorial Day holiday

Tuesday – 5/29

  • Given the market’s well-justified European fixation, the Conference Board’s May Consumer Confidence report and the Case-Schiller’s April home price index may not get a lot of attention. But the expectation is for Consumer Confidence is to have modestly improved from April’s 69.2 level.

Wednesday – 5/30

  • The April Pending Home sales report from the National Association of Realtors is the only release today. Pending homes are those where the contract has been signed, but the sale hasn’t closed yet. Last week’s new and existing home sales numbers were broadly on the better-than-expected side, indicating the improved outlook for the sector.

Thursday – 5/31

  • A very busy morning for economic releases, starting with the May jobs report from Automatic Data Processing (NYSE:ADP), the payroll processor. We will get the weekly Jobless Claims data, the second look at the first quarter GDP, and the Chicago PMI.
  • The ADP report will give us a flavor of what to expect in the Friday’s government jobs report. Last month, the ADP report disappointed by coming up with a 119K jobs number, which was followed up by a disappointing government jobs report of 115K jobs.
  • The GDP growth rate is expected to come down from the first round’s 2.2% to 1.9%, though the all-important personal consumers expenditures (or consumer spending) component will likely not see much revision.

Friday – 6/01

  • We have four major reports coming out today, though the focus will be on the May non-farm payroll report. Other major reports include the May manufacturing ISM survey, the April Construction Spending report, and the April Personal Income & Outlays report.
  • Despite the crowded economic calendar, the Jobs report will be the key driver of the day’s trading action. It appears that the disappointing reports in April and March have helped temper expectations a bit, as hardly anyone is looking for number of above 200K. The expectation is for ‘headline’ gains of about 165K, compared to the 115K gained in April. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.1%.  
  • The ISM report is expected to show a modest decline from April’s 54.8 level, while construction spending growth is expected to have increased in April from March’s growth pace.
     

Earnings Calendar

CompanyTicker1Q-12E1Q-11ALast EPS Surprise %Report DayTime
ENERSYS INCENS0.950.7514.29TuesdayAMC
SANDERSON FARMSSAFM0.86-0.56-427.27TuesdayBTO
PERFECT WORLDPWRD0.730.7661.11TuesdayAMC
SOC QUIMICA MINSQM0.520.421.69TuesdayAMC
ITERIS INCITI0.010.010TuesdayAMC
CORVEL CORPCRVL0.70.69-37.33WednesdayBTO
JOS A BANK CLTHJOSB0.620.64-0.63WednesdayBTO
RBC BEARINGSROLL0.620.478WednesdayBTO
DOLLAR GENERALDG0.590.483.66WednesdayBTO
COPART INCCPRT0.430.3522.41WednesdayAMC
BOOZ ALLEN HMLTBAH0.410.3317.14WednesdayBTO
FRESH MARKETTFM0.350.28-2.56WednesdayBTO
ITURAN LOCATIONITRN0.320.313.57WednesdayBTO
LIONS GATE ETMTLGF0.190.26-111.11WednesdayAMC
MIDSTATES PETROMPO0.18N/AN/AWednesdayAMC
QAD INC-AQADA0.170.06N/AWednesdayAMC
PACIFIC DRILLNGPACD0.15N/AN/AWednesdayAMC
COSAN LTD-ACZZ0.13N/AN/AWednesdayAMC
QAD INCQADB0.110.0615.38WednesdayAMC
TILLYS INCTLYS0.11N/AN/AWednesdayAMC
TEAVANA HOLDINGTEA0.10.093.23WednesdayBTO
MEDICAL ACTIONMDCI0.040.07175WednesdayBTO
TAOMEE HOLDINGSTAOM0.040.21-20WednesdayAMC
DAKTRONICS INCDAKT0.030.07-42.86WednesdayBTO
DRYSHIPS INCDRYS0.020.16-12.5WednesdayAMC
NORTH AMER EGYNOA-0.120.29-127.78WednesdayAMC
SYSWIN INC-ADSSYSW-0.120.1123.08WednesdayAMC
TIVO INCTIVO-0.15-0.298.7WednesdayAMC
YINGLI GREEN ENYGE-0.190.3679.45WednesdayBTO
COLDWATER CREEKCWTR-0.2-0.329.52WednesdayAMC
NCI BLDG SYSTEMNCS-0.39-0.4853.62WednesdayAMC
JOY GLOBAL INCJOY1.951.52-6.67ThursdayBTO
CDN IMPL BKCM1.881.772.06ThursdayBTO
ESTERLINE TECHNESL1.31.4719.67ThursdayAMC
PHILLIPS 66PSX0.9N/AN/AThursdayBTO
JDA SOFTWARE GPJDAS0.480.328.93ThursdayAMC
ASCENA RETAILASNA0.360.3320.9ThursdayAMC
SAIC INCSAI0.330.36-8.82ThursdayAMC
ISLE OF CAPRIISLE0.30.2270ThursdayBTO
VERA BRADLEYVRA0.290.286.38ThursdayAMC
MOVADO GRP INCMOV0.250.0251.16ThursdayBTO
CHARMING SHOPPECHRS0.180.17-200ThursdayBTO
DESCARTES SYSDSGX0.130.07-15.38ThursdayBTO
OMNIVISION TECHOVTI0.080.578ThursdayAMC
AMER ORIENT BIOAOB0.030.0260ThursdayAMC
STAR BULK CARRSSBLK-0.050.0120ThursdayBTO
SABA SOFTWARESABA-0.060.030ThursdayAMC
SPLUNK INCSPLK-0.07N/AN/AThursdayAMC
REALD INCRLD-0.080.08183.33ThursdayAMC
CIENA CORPCIEN-0.14-0.33-52.94ThursdayBTO
AMER SUPERCONAMSC-0.38-0.5817.02ThursdayBTO
JINKOSOLAR HLDGJKS-1.062.1-366.07ThursdayBTO
THERMON GROUPTHR0.19-0.1221.05FridayBTO
GRAHAM CORPGHM0.10.275FridayBTO
AMER WOODMARKAMWD-0.07-0.1834.62FridayBTO

 
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