Time To Go Long On This Health Care ETF?
After viewing an interview with ex-CIGNA head corporate communications exec Wendall Potter, I wondered how the big health care insurance companies are doing in the market. With all the political debate about government run health care, are they suffering or are they rising with the market?
I took a look at the ETF of U.S. Healthcare Providers (IHF). From a high of about $64 in 2007 to a low near $25, a Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% at the $40 level had been the upper limit on IHF, until this last week.
It may be no coincidence that PBS brought back the interview with Wendall Potter to counter the move by the “group of six senators”.
Monday evening came the announcement that a “group of six senators is going to eliminate the public option from their version of the health care reform legislation.” The Public Option “literally means that Americans would have the option to choose public health insurance. Having the public health insurance option means that Americans would have a choice of keeping the health insurance they currently have, buying health insurance from one of the many private health insurance companies, or choosing a public health insurance plan.”
If you eliminate the public option, the major health care companies win and that was reflected in the stock prices. The impact of the news can be seen in the last four days of treading.
Here’s the way I see it.
Go long IHF if you believe Obama’s health insurance won’t get passed. Go long IHF if you believe the public option will be excluded from the bill. Go short if you believe the insurance companies will have to contend with a government-run alternative. Right now all arrows are green and pointing at the sky!