(CEP News) - Auto sales have been on a steady downward trend over the past several years and the trend looks set to continue in February.

Economists are forecasting U.S. auto sales to fall to 9.4 million units in the month, down from 9.6 million in January. Estimates from economists polled by Bloomberg range from 8.2 million to 10.1 million.

A year ago, auto sales stood at 15.3 million units.

“The auto sector has felt the brunt of this recession as consumers have dramatically reduced spending on big-ticket items,” economists from Barclays Capital wrote in a client note. “This weakness has been exacerbated by distressed financial markets, which have made it very difficult to receive auto loans.”

Similarly, economists at Desjardins say the decline in sales is difficult to stop, noting sales in January fell to a new cyclical low. Looking at passenger vehicles, they noted sales fell to their lowest level since statistics were first kept in 1967.

“The economic problems, low consumer confidence and credit that is harder to obtain mean that there is not much hope things will improve shortly,” they noted. “February’s sales levels could be just as low as January’s.”

On the more optimistic side, economists from Nomura Securities are looking for a slight recover in the month. “A sudden drop in fleet sales in January likely depressed auto sales relative to their underlying trend,” the economists wrote.

“While poor consumer fundamentals and still-tight credit conditions are likely to prevent a sustained recovery, we believe a modest bounce-back to 10.0 million units is possible this month.”

Looking at domestic sales, economists expect a decline to 6.8 million units in February, from 6.9 million in January. Economist forecasts range from 5.4 million to 7.4 million.

The vehicle sales data will be released at some point on Tuesday.

By Stephen Huebl, shuebl@economicnews.ca

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Posted in Categories: Australia, Auto, Economy, Eurozone, Releases, USA.

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