(CEP News) - Fourth quarter GDP growth estimates for a number of euro zone economies will be the pivotal releases on Friday, culminating with the “flash” GDP estimate for the monetary union as a whole.

For the euro zone, the consensus forecast is looking for gross domestic product to fall 1.3% in seasonally adjusted terms in the fourth quarter, following the previous quarter’s 0.2% decline.

Year-over-year, expectations are calling for economic output to have contracted 1.1% in Q4, down from Q3’s annualized gain of 0.6%.

“The euro zone is on the verge of experiencing the deepest contraction since its creation with the quarterly Q4 08 GDP figure being likely to show a 1.4% q/q drop (-1.0% y/y),” IDEAglobal economist Lorenzo Cella said.

“We perceive downside risks to our below-consensus forecast (market looks for a 1.3% q/q decline), which could harm the EUR, albeit at the margin.”

New car registrations for January will also be released on Friday, which are expected to fall more than 18% in the month. Later on, European Central Bank Executive Board Member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo will speak in Lerida, Spain.

All times in EST:

2:00 GE GDP (Q/Q) (SA) 4Q Prelim Exp: -1.8% Prior: -0.5%

2:00 GE GDP Y/Y (WDA) 4Q Prelim Exp: -1.4% Prior: +0.8%

2:00 GE GDP Y/Y (NSA) 4Q Prelim Exp: -1.3% Prior: +1.3%

2:00 EU European 25 New Car Registrations January Prior: -18.2%

2:45 FR Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q 4Q Prelim Exp: -0.5% Prior: -0.3%

2:45 FR Wages Q/Q 4Q Prelim Exp: +0.4% Prior: +0.7%

2:45 FR Central Govt. Balance December Prior: -€66.6B

2:50 FR Gross Domestic Product Q/Q 4Q Prelim Exp: -1.2% Prior: +0.1%

2:50 FR Gross Domestic Product Y/Y 4Q Prelim Exp: -0.9% Prior: +0.6%

4:00 IT GDP SA and Q/Q (WDA) 4Q Prelim Exp: -1.3% Prior: -0.5%

4:00 IT GDP SA and Y/Y (WDA) 4Q Prelim Exp: -1.7% Prior: -0.9%

5:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP Q/Q (SA) 4Q Adv. Exp: -1.3% Prior: -0.2%

5:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP Y/Y (SA) 4Q Adv. Exp: -1.1% Prior: +0.6%

IT Bank of Italy Releases Dec. Public Finance Supplement

6:00 BE ECB’s Gonzalez-Paramo Speaks in Lerida, Spain

By Todd Wailoo, twailoo@economicnews.ca, edited by Stephen Huebl, shuebl@economicnews.ca

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