EUR/USD Moves Up To Test 100-Hour Moving Average And Backs Off

The EURUSD moved up this morning on the back of mover risk tolerance it seems. The PMI data came out as expected at 50.7.  Although as expected it was the first move above the 50 level which signals growth in the sector, since May 2008. The low reached 33.5 in February 2009.

From a technical basis, the price reached a low of 1.4703 which was a pip short of the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the October low to the October high.  On the topside, the high today breached the 100 hour MA at the 1.4786 level - moving to a high of 1.4795.   However, the price has moved back down below that key moving average level and has not been able to close above this key level  today. A move and close above is needed to excite the bulls.

Going forward, there should be resistance at the 100 hour MA at 1.4784.  A move back above this level should look toward the 1.4830 (close from Thursday) and 1.4840 level (38.2% of the October high low range).

On the downside, there is intraday short term support at the 1.4767 level (100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart -blue line in the 5 minute chart above) and below that the 1.4751 level (200 bar MA level on the same chart - green line).  If the price can hold these levels, it is likely we extend the upside range today.  Look for buyers on dips against these levels.  A break targets the low from Friday at 1.4716 and below that the low support at 1.4702 once again.

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