US Mortgage Applications Fall 1.8% For The Latest Week

The US Mortgage Applications fell by 1.8% for the current week.  This was on the back of a large 16.4% gain last week.  The components in the report showed that the Purchase index fell by -5% vs a gain of 13.2% last week. The Refinance Index fell by -0.1% vs a gain of 18.2% last week.  The  average rate rose to 5.02% from 4.88% last week.

Although down, the fall is from the highest level in 4 months.

Later this morning the Retail Sales will be released for the month of September. The expectation is for a decline of -2.1% vs a gain of 2.7% last month. The Less Auto release is expected to show a gain of 0.2% vs a larger than expected gain of 1.1%.  The number is expected to be effected by the cash for clunkers program which inflated last months number but will subtract from this months headline number.

Also due for release at 8:30 will be the Import Price Index for September.  This number is expected to show a MoM gain of 0.2% with the YoY rising to -11.4% from -15.0% last month.  This series is still working through the large declines from 2008 when in Sept, October, November and December the MoM declines were -3.6%, -6%, -7.4% and -16.9% respectively. The falling out of those values will show that the dollar decline and higher oil is raising the import prices by a fairly healthy rate of greater than 8%.  Although, there are counter deflationay effects, if that inflation should slow, the inflation worries will resurface.  That is down the road however.

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