USD/CHF: The Upside Climb Is The Harder Move

Overnight the Trade Balance in Switzerland showed a marked improvement.  The Trade surplus was much higher than expectations - rising to 2.56 billion Swiss Francs.  The forecast was for a gain of 110 million.  Exports increased by 8.3% while imports fell by 0.3%.

The stronger report suggests an improvement in the global economy in April and this benefited the Swiss economy which is dependent on a strong export market.

All of which helped contribute to a higher Swiss Franc/lower USD/CHF today.  The pair reversed nearly all of the late yesterday gains when the price moved higher above and away from  the 100 hour moving average (see chart above).  The move lower took the price back down to test that same 100 hour moving average once again.  The level comes in at the 1.0865 currently.  The low today was 1.0870.  This level will be a key level to watch today.

On the upside there is intraday resistance against the 100 and 200 bar on the 5 minute chart which comes in at 1.0908 and 1.0916 repectively (see 5 minute chart above).  If the price can hold here (testing currently), an extension to the downside would be expected.

Above this level looms the  close from yesterday at 1.0931 and the high today at 1.0953.  The upside climb is the harder move given the better Swiss data and the weakish data out of the US today - or it would seem at least.

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