Forex Trading: EUR/USD Moves Below 100-Hour Moving Average

The EUR/USD has just moved below the 100 hour moving average at the 1.3235.  The pair moved up initially in early trade last night in NY.  Later data out of the region came out weaker that expected.  German Retail Sales for March were down -1.0% with expectations of 0.2.  The Sentix Investor Confidence for the EUROZONE came out at -34.3 which was up from -35.3 last month, but below expectations of -28.0.  The PMI Manufacturing rose slightly to 36.8 from 33.9 last month.  Although up, it is still at low levels.

This led to steady declines in the pair toward the moving average.  The pair last moved above the 100 hour moving average at 1.3097 on April 28th.  The high of the the move higher since that time reached 1.3381.

For today there should be continued momentum to the downside, however, there is good support approaching on the downside to be aware.

The key 100 day moving average is currently at the 1.3204 level today and moving sideways indicating non trending longer term conditions.   This level will be the target on the downside and  should provide support.

The market has been moving above and below this moving average on a number of occasions in the last few weeks of trading as the market wrestles with a defining a longer term trend.

The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 22nd low comes in at the 1.3195 level.  This too will be support for the EUR/USD this morning.

Being below the 100 hour MA the bias is negative.  A break of the 100 day MA and the 38.2% retracement levels will indicate a more bearish environment for the EUR/USD as the market prepares for the next interest rate meeting on Thursday.  The market is expecting a cut of 25 basis points to 1.0%.

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