GBP/USD Outlook: British Pound Fights To Hold Onto Its Uptrend

The Cable is weakening below our uptrend line while approaching the psychological 1.45 cushion.  The Dollar is experiencing relative strength against the Pound due to the combination of yesterday’s better than expected economic data from the U.S. combined with much weaker than expected Retail Sales from Britain today.  In a nutshell, this week’s data reveals that inflation is rising rapidly in Britain while consumption slows.

Meanwhile, both America’s and Britain’s central banks have lowered their benchmark rates to record lows while implementing quantitative easing.  We do not know whether the quantitative easing and stimulus packages will have a greater impact on CPI and PPI in the two countries.  Therefore, until the U.S. releases this inflation data the GBP/USD should be tightly weighted to comparative production and unemployment data from the two countries.

While the Cable is fighting to hold onto its uptrend, the Euro is witnessing considerable strength against the Dollar, which is reflected clearly in the EUR/GBP.  All eyes will be on America’s release of weekly Unemployment Claims and Final GDP today.

Fundamentally, we find resistance of 1.4570 with additional resistances hanging at 1.4619, 1.4671, and 1.4704.  The 1.45 area will serve as a psychological cushion with 1.50 acting as a highly psychological barrier.  To the downside, we see supports of 1.4544, 1.4498, 1.4453, and 1.4420.   The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.4560.

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