GBP/USD: Near-Term Momentum Is Pointing To The Upside

The Cable is strengthening from our uptrend line as the Pound shows relative strength against both the Dollar and Euro after the EU released a highly negative Trade Balance.  However, the rally is stalling as investors await the speech from Geithner outlining America’s plan to deal with the toxic assets on bank balance sheets.  Regardless of the market reaction, the GBP/USD should hold up relatively well since no significant news will come from Britain until tomorrow’s CPI release.

If the Cable should break above February 23 highs, we anticipate large near-term gains as the currency pair runs towards 2009 highs and the highly psychological 1.50 level.   Despite the progress made by the Cable, the medium-term downtrend will hold precedence until the GBP/USD can eclipse the aforementioned barriers.

Since both Britain and the U.S. are using quantitative easing to hydrate their economies, a battle surely lies ahead for the Cable to the upside.  Discounting the obstacles in the distance, the near-term momentum is pointing to the upside for the GBP/USD.

Fundamentally, we find resistances of 1.4617, 1.4655, 1.4707, and 1.4781.  The 1.45 area will serve as a psychological cushion with 1.50 acting as a highly psychological barrier.  To the downside, we see supports of 1.4554, 1.4505, 1.4424 and 1.4370.   The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.4573.

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