Don’t Call It A Comeback: The Story Of The EUR/USD’s Reversal

Last week EUR/USD was testing the bottom of a descending trendline, and while I don’t trade dollar strength because I don’t trade against what I perceive to be the long-term trend, I expected it to fall.

Looks like I was wrong. EUR/USD did shoot out of the descending triangle quickly — but it did to the upside. So is EUR/USD ready to start an uptrend again? Let’s see what the charts tell us:

1. The four hour chart shows the moving averages bullishly aligned, Moreover, the three consecutive bullish candles, each with higher lows, and coming following a downtrend, suggests a three white soldiers pattern, which would be a bullish sign.

2. Meanwhile, on the daily chart, we also see the three white soldiers pattern, as well as the moving averages having turned bullish.

3. Lastly, on the weekly chart, we see that the market has been trading in a range for the past few weeks, consolidating its previous sharp moves. Now, though, we see a bullish breakout, as well as a change in direction on the 5 EMA.

Key Levels

If you’re looking to go long EUR/USD, I’d look for resistance at around 1.3250, with support at 1.2950. A break above the 50 EMA, which is currently at around 1.3250, may suggest a larger reversal of trend is forming.

Fundamental Factors Confirm

We’re seeing dollar weakness show up in other markets as well; USD/JPY broke south of its descending triangle, and gold has broken above resistance at both $748 and $800. US stock market traders will want to be particularly wary of bull markets at this time; is it really a bull market if it were priced in another currency, like gold?

Long-term I am very bearish on the US dollar, so now seems like there may be an opportunity for dollar bears in the EUR/USD market.

Disclosure: No position in EUR/USD. Short USD/JPY.

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