Week Ahead In The Forex Markets

This week was a bit more calm than the previous week, which usually bodes better for long term traders. While the EUR/USD only ended with an 11 pip loss, the trading range was larger and created an indecisive doji candle. I’m not sure where this will be going for the next week, but it should be more aparent after the Sunday trading session. Here are the total pip movements for the majors:

Majors

• EUR/USD | -11 pips
• USD/JPY | -23 pips
• GBP/USD | -440 pips
• USD/CHF | +210 pips
• AUD/USD | +52 pips
• USD/CAD | -242 pips

I for one don’t mind when the market is choppy because it seems to make better scalping opportunities, and many more overbought and oversold positions for me to focus on. My gut feeling is that we are going to see another rather calm week now that the majority of the financial crisis news is being absorbed and the general public is starting to get used to it. And since all economies and currencies are hurting, not just the US, then the pairs will even out.

Next Week’s Specials

After going over the 1 week and 1 day charts for all of the majors, I then looked at 1 hr charts to finish up my analysis. I have combined this with important news that is coming out this coming week and I have come up with the following Weekly Specials:

• USD/CHF Breakout or Reversal

Right now I’m looking at the strength of the USD against the Swissie and I’m wondering if it can avoid creating a triple top on the 1hr charts and break through the 1.1800 level. I’ll monitor this position on Sunday without making or recommending any trades because my big rule is not to trade on Sunday as many of you know. I will also be monitoring whether or not the EUR/USD slide is over. Last week we saw a marginal loss, with a doji candle to leave us hanging on the week charts. As always, I will look for breakouts and pullbacks for scalps before I decide which week long direction this will follow

• News releases to watch

If you like to trade on Sunday, be aware of the Australian news releases for home loans at 8:30 PM EST and the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy statement at the same time. These are red flag releases and in my mind could result in another week of losses for the AUD/USD pair if the numbers are off. I say this because after a short rally of this pair over the last couple of weeks, it appears to be hitting a wall.

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