Treasury Spread Shows No Sign Of Inflation

Mark Perry
updated | Author's Website

The current spread between nominal 10-year Treasuries at 3.68% (data) and 10-year TIPS (data) at 1.30% has increased slightly over the last few months, to the current level of 238 basis points as of February 4.  But the current spread is still below the 250 basis point average during 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and the first half of 2008 (see chart above).  At least by this Treasury bond-market derived estimate of future inflation, there don’t appear to be any inflationary pressures building yet.

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