V-Shaped Recovery: “Virtually Unstoppable”

Yahoo! Finance - Good news for those worried about the economy: “We are in the early stages of the recovery and it looks to be a lot stronger” than the consensus for modest 2%-3% GDP growth, says Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Furthermore, the recovery will be “V-shaped” and is now “virtually unstoppable” - at least through the first half of 2010 — Achuthan says, citing a “positive contagion” in the economy right now, based on leading economic indicators. Most notably, the ECRI’s index of Weekly Economic Indicators just hit a new record high (see chart above).

NEW YORK, Oct 9 (Reuters) - As the U.S. economy rebounds from a long-running recession, a weekly leading index of future growth released on Friday showed the annualized growth rate hitting a record high. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 128.3 in the week to Oct. 2 from 127.1 the prior week. The index’s yearly growth rate rose to new all-time high of 26.1 percent in the latest reading, from a revised 25.0 percent the prior week (see chart above).

“With WLI (Weekly Leading Index) growth rocketing to a new record high, the economic recovery will prove to be far more resilient in coming months than most believe possible,” said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI’s managing director. “The risk of a double dip (recession) is very low,” Achuthan added.

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