ECRI: Double-Dip Recession “Out Of The Question”

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week, though its yearly growth rate surged to a 38-year high that suggests chances of a double-dip recession are slim. The Economic Cycle Research Institute said its Weekly Leading Index for the week to August 21 fell to 124.4 from 124.9 the prior week. But the index’s annualized growth rate soared to a 38-year high of 19.6% from 17.4% the prior week. It was the WLI’s highest yearly growth rate reading since the week to May 28, 1971, when it stood at 20.5% (see chart above).

“With WLI growth continuing to surge through late summer, a double dip back into recession in the fourth quarter is simply out of the question,” said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan, reinstating the group’s recent warning to ignore negative analyst projections. Achuthan has recently projected that the recovery is moving at a stronger pace than any the United States has seen since the early 1980s.

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