Secret Information From The Bureau of Labor Statistics

Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issues a report on the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).  This document is loaded with interesting facts that no one seems to know.

It is not really classified “Top Secret” but it might as well be.  There was zero media coverage today and a Google search shows nothing from blogs or MSM.

Here are some interesting data from the last business day in June, the date covered in the questions.  We note that while this has a “June handle” the information is only a couple of weeks different from the widely followed July employment situation report.  The latter survey is based on mid-month information.

Key facts you probably did not know:

• At the end of June there were about 2.5 million job openings nationwide;
• During June there were 3.8 million new hires;
• 1.8 million people quit their jobs (seasonally adjusted);
• There were 2.5 million involuntary separations.

The reality?  These numbers are all terrible!  They are a bit off the worst levels from two months ago, but still very bad.  People underestimate labor dynamics.

The conclusion is important, and just as we wrote in April.

Implications

The facts are poorly understood.  You do not see them on CNBC, in the MSM, or on blogs.  Our guess is that few pundits could guess any of these numbers.  It is a neglected subject.

Our guess is that the leading pundits are essentially unware of any of these facts and could not guess the numbers within an order of magnitude.  People think that there are no jobs, that no one is quitting and that no one is getting hired.  They also vastly underestimate new job creation, which is significant, even in a recession.

The key point is the massive shift in employment — something that is always going on.  If one thinks about this, the arguments about the bete noir of bloggers, the birth/death adjustment, is seen in a better perspective.

There are always millions of people quitting and getting fired.  Millions of others are getting hired.

The story is very negative.  If you consider the number of people losing jobs, and needing to search for new ones, it dwarfs the actual unemployment rate.  Many people are worried about their jobs, and rightly so.  No wonder sentiment is so negative!

There is much more focus on job losses than new jobs.  The former get the news stories.  The latter are basically unreported.

And most importantly —

The market fixation on net job changes ignores the much larger picture of employment dynamics.

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Comment by Emily Harcum

2009-08-26 06:57:49

Have you ever heard of the “Business Employment Dynamics” survey also done by the Bureau? If not, you should def check it out. It gets at the employment dynamics you were speaking of in your article.

Although the media might fail to pick up a piece of news, bloggers can do their part to spread the word! So, thanks for helping to be part of the solution!

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Comment by Jeff

2009-08-26 10:20:44

Thanks, Emily. I do indeed follow the Business Employment Dynamics report, and occasionally write about it.

As “old data” it also gets little attention. That is part of the explanation for how poorly people understand how we measure job creation.

Thanks for your comment!

Jeff

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