Empire State Survey Suggests Recession Is Ending

NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey — The future general business conditions index rose 11 points in May to 43.8, its highest level since November 2007 (see chart above). This index has shown a cumulative increase of more than 40 points over the past two months. The future new orders and shipments indexes have followed a similar path. The future prices paid index remained modestly above zero, while the future prices received index remained just below zero. The future employment indexes were both positive. The future index for number of employees rose for a third month, to 0.7, and the future average workweek index dipped to 4.6. The capital expenditures and technology spending indexes were little changed from last month, both holding just below zero.

MP: The last time there was a two-month increase of more than 40 points was November 2001, at the tail end of the 2001 recession.

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