When Will We Know For Sure Recession Is Over?

There has been a lot of discussion lately about green shoots, mustard seeds and an end to the recession sometime this year. How long would it take for the NBER to make the official announcement that the current recession is over? Let’s look at the last two recessions.

The last recession ended in November 2001, but the official announcement by the NBER didn’t come until July 17, 2003, almost 20 months after the recession was over.

The 1990-1991 recession ended in March of 1991, but the NBER official announcement that the recession ended was released until December 22, 1992, almost 21 months.

Let’s be optimistic and assume that the recession ends in the middle of 2009, and let’s pick June 2009 as a possibility. In that case, given the past record of the NBER, we wouldn’t officially that the recession ended until February or March of 2011.

Bottom Line: Under the most optimistic circumstances, we won’t know until 2011 that the recession has ended.

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