Green Shoots? In Your Dreams, Obama

Obama says he sees the green shoots of recovery. it is nothing of the sort, what we are seeing now is the levelling out of the crash phase of the recession.

Now if there were green shoots, it would be into a strong bounce. The stock market is in a nice rally, that is about it. Rallies have a habit of petering out this decade in the US stock market.

As for everything else, the case-shiller index is still looking bad, company credit is bad. The only thing recovering are the banks and they have been bailed out with more money than it took to beat Hitler and Tojo.

Why talk about Obama? Well he is a model for our own Cameron. Obama’s Presidency is unlikely to go down as a great success as people tire of the depression. Instead he will slowly lose credibility; partly by constantly saying things are getting better when reality says they are not.

I hope our own Tories have learned the two key lessons here:

1) (Unlike Major and Lamont) Don’t spy green shoots that don’t exist, it grates on the electorate
2) Don’t push Brown out now, let him deal with the coming year of fall and stagnation.

To this end, the UK electoral cycle is more in favour of Cameron than the US is for Obama. Unless Guido gets his way of course….

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