Consensus Forecast: An Economic Recovery Beginning Later This Year

A couple of folks have asked if my forecast, described here, is out in left field.  That prompts me to offer a comparison of my economic outlook to two survey averages.  The Wall Street Journal surveys (subscription required) 54 professional forecasters, mostly from financial institutions.  The National Association for Business Economics surveys its members, with 47 participating in the latest tabulation, from a somewhat more diverse group of companies.

Here’s my forecast compared to the average of these two consensus forecast surveys:

Near term we’re all pretty close, but I’m more optimistic about next year.

The most important point: recent press coverage would lead a person to think that no one was forecasting an end to the recession.  However, an economic recovery beginning later this year is the consensus forecast.

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Comment by jlounsbury59

2009-02-27 15:13:28

Bill - - -

Have you seen anyone do a comparison of consensus from 1Q/2008 to consensus from 1Q/2009? With the same survey groups?

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Comment by Hostile Knowledge

2009-03-02 03:36:07

Is this an “Onion” article?

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