Markets On The Way Down

A big week ahead, and has already started with a bang. Whether commodities are leading equities or the other way round matters not, as if this is to be a beginning of a major correction, be long of nothing. Whether position is taken off pre FOMC or cashed out for half year end, the case that this may be the correction bears have been waiting for is perhaps stronger this time, especially when SFOT received this bloomberg message headline from a sell side analyst first thing this morning… “World Bank cuts global GDP forecasts to -2.9% from -1.7% for 2009 and to 2% from 2.3% for 2010. It calls for “bold” policy action as the outlook for the poorest countries is “bleak”.”

Gasoline has led this move down, and now that July Rbob contract is well below the £2 mark, that appears to be strong resistance again. The way that gasoline cracks in July 2009 collapsed suggests a lot of spec lengths are taking off position, possible ahead of FOMC. While the correlation between gasoline cracks and FOMC decision is probably not very high, if indeed this pullback is due to risk unwind, then perhaps the other more obvious risky assets has got another leg down, and very soon.

The double top formation in continuous CL1 is taking place now, and if the expiry today in CLN9 turns out to be ugly, then perhaps a test of $65 will be in place very shortly. Being long gamma will pay off this week.

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