Is Gasoline Getting Too Strong For Its Own Good?

There is not too much changes in the energy complex today, in particular flat price. With USD getting a bid, and the obvious break in eurusd in a classic head and shoulder development, Crude came under some pressure but holding out this $70 handle is still a sign of strength on it own and the current macro theme remains the same. Although there has been a little correction in the rates world, with 2year rates coming off about 30bps from its high last week, rates have still gone up a long way. With bullish news yesterday that UK CBI has warned BOE may raise rates soon, and the very strong ZEW reading today out of Germany, one may have to admit the greenshoot/reflation play may still have a bit of legs, and speculators in Crude especially have not got any real reason to dump just yet.

Gasoline has made another turn for the highs, and retail gasoline prices are now the highs of the year. Perhaps its speculative strength, perhaps its the fear of hurricanes, perhaps it is fear of further run cuts that will take Days forward cover to another low. Whatever the case, cracks and spreads are definitely bullish but it is at this point SFOT is contemplating taking off length in gasoline. The main reason being he sees no more reason for cracks to head higher, and spreads to be much stronger as the high price may start to eat into demand numbers, although he sees no real evidence as things taking place just yet. Any comments here welcomed…

aug/sep rbob spread

Rbob crck Jul9

US Gasoline days cover

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