Oil Markets: Greenshoot Or Overshoot - Part 2

Distillate cracks are under pressure early London morning, and rightly so given that API data shows a large crude draw of 3mio barrels. A closer look to the API numbers shows something amiss. Crude has drawn but the implied demand has decreased by around 1mio barrel, while refinery activities are also down by about 250k. SFOT is treating this data with caution, and looks to DOE for more clues. However, one thing for certain is, that although option expires tomorrow and $60 has indeed proven a big obstacle, if DOE data shows a similar draw across the board, irrespective of demand numbers, we will not stay below $60 in front line WTI for long.

The fact that market seems to be ignoring current demand numbers for now is reinforced by the revision of EIA demand numbers yesterday. 2009 consumption is now forecast to fall by 1.8mio barrels/day, 0.4mio more than the forecast last month. This only seemed to put flat price on the back foot for 2 seconds before bouncing back up. Opec has also just reduced its forecast on demand by 150kbbl/day, which will see the number for 2009 falling by 1.57 mio bbl/day.

While SFOT views that we have probably seen the lows in oil prices, he can only feel what most macro traders are feeling here in terms of equity strength. When will the next wave down come? What will it take for the market to fall? Back to greenshoots or overshoot in this current day theme.

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